Earthquake Nepal 2015 and my personal confession

Many years from now if someone would ask me what was it like experiencing the Earthquake of 2015 then I would not narrate them where I was and what I did and I would not explain how it felt. Instead I would tell them one thing and that one thing is -  "it changed me". Yes, this natural calamity changed me to my inner core. What changed me  wasn't the nerve wrecking  low humming sound of striking shock-wave which still rings my ear  nor  was it the terrifying experience of watching people running for their life and of course it wasn't the sight of death and destruction that ensued(which sounds cruel indeed. I guess I have become numbed with violence we witness everywhere ). But instead it was something more personal , something more to my heart.

All my life there is one thing that I have ever been proud of and that one thing is my devotion towards my family. Ever since my mother was diagnosed with Alzheimer's over ten years ago , I had forgone many  opportunities  and prospects just to be beside her. Over the course of time , that feeling of humbleness of taking care of her despite all the odds outgrew within me into something very  vile and  something very dark, a  feeling of moral superiority  .  In recent times I used to wear that smugness of self-righteousness on my sleeve, unabashedly like the selfie generation posing with victory symbol while doing charitable deeds.   But in one single jolt the earthquake wiped that  entire smugness off my face.

I was seating in front my laptop doing some busy work (yes, I work on Saturday as well . Isn't that pathetic?). And all of sudden I felt as if my feet were bobbing up on surface of water and not firm on ground. The tremor came with such a force that for instant you lose your entire faculty. And I knew that earthquake has struck. For a moment I thought of my mother in her bed . I couldn't decide whether to go and protect her and ensure her safety or try to run for my own life. And then I ran. I ran like a chicken that I was. And within a few seconds I was down to the ground.  After abandoning her  in third storey ,from the safety of my garden where the jasmine and rose were blooming with mellow sweetness I watched with horror how my house swayed with the tremor. And in that dreadful moment that lasted for few minutes I realized how hollow and how weak my resolve was. I felt empty, mute and impotent. It felt like eternity. Finally when it stopped I ran to top and into her room. And as usual my mother was smiling care free.  And when I saw myself in mirror I didn't see myself, but what I saw was a shell of arrogant guy struck by nature's whiplash.  I saw a broken man who abandoned someone he loved dearly in face of natural calamity. I was a just a sucker, a chickenshit who was taught  a hard lesson by nature that in this world there is no guarantees and damn there is no such thing as unwavering resolve. These crisis certainly  brings forth true color of people and sadly mine was yellow.

Now my personal lamentation in face of such crisis that has befallen over our nation is certainly  minuscule and it doesn't mean a diddly-squat. Many people have lost their lives, family, friends ,fortune and everything. This earthquake has certainly shown that it doesn't matter whether you are rich, poor, religious, agnostic, self-righteous or depraved; nature is always a great equalizer. The wound that this disaster has inflicted might heal with time but undoubtedly the scar will always remain. And this scar is a painful reminder to all of us that in life never take anything for granted. Live life right here and right now because this very moment you have can be usurped at any instant. Never think that your  job and your career  is important, what is important is how you make difference with your work and your job. Never think that earning money is important, what is more important is you didn't earned it on other's expense. Never make  your deadlines and your personal goals as your priority, they can always take back seat , what  really is important is telling your loved one how much you care. Because this moment might be lost in an instant. And for all those who survived this disaster lets extend our helping hand because our motherland really needs one.

Before this write-up bloviates into a self-loathing , boring preachy  monologue. I just want to say one thing at the end in lighter note, No matter how much advancement we have made in technology. Radio still rules.  

Startups and Survivor Bias

Startups are sexy. There is no doubt about it. Just take a sneak peek into any of national or international business magazines and you'll see  a blurb or story about new startups  which seems to be ubiquitously mushrooming every  right and left. Everywhere you see the glossy magazines cover where smiling faces shows the new cool kids in town with their new shiny product with promise of changing the world that we live in. Just talk to your neighbors, your childhood friend or your office colleagues and you'll find each one is currently  being involved in one way or the other in  some form of startup ideas that ranges from new App that helps you to get rid of your dog fleas or an aerosol to clean your toilet. Or social entrepreneurship venture that promise to sale grandmother's chutney online or an environmental initiative to explore adventure agriculture (growing weeds). The list goes on and on. Who knows your idea might become next big thing akin to Wello or  Barefoot power or even bigger Uber someday. Who knows perhaps Peter Theil himself is watching your every move and may surprise you with lucrative Term Sheet during your next venture round.

So  the question is are these start ups really a new phenomena. Of course not.  On the contrary it is just a term representing different flavor of entrepreneurship which fueled by promising engineering graduates and smart fresh MBAs  have recently entered into what Carl Jung defines as our Collective Unconscious.   Borrowing word from Nicolas Nassim Taleb startups are indeed a black swan or a form of Schumpeterian creative destruction that drives the wedge on status quo. They put innovation into driving seat and is a leading barometer of changing products and taste

However, this startup culture whether good or bad has undoubtedly done one thing and that is create a dilemma, something right out of Shakespearian soliloquy "To be or not to be" . A question that seem to plague everyone - should they give up everything they are doing right now and jump into startup bandwagon? Will it be more fun and more productive? Will they make more money and have bigger impact on society?    Honestly there is no clear cut answer to this. Everyone has their one view. Meanwhile, having been involved in three startups during past ten years under different capacity from software developer to solution architect to CTO,   I personally would say   "Good Luck" (Aside Note : All three had been utter failure otherwise you would have been reading my success story in Quora rather than my own lamentation in my personal blog page).  And yes luck is the huge factor. For any startup to succeed you should have right product, at right time at right place. Otherwise no matter how smart or innovative your product is at the end of the day  you will be swimming in a cesspool of misery.

Now you might ask why don't we hear about this? Why aren't  any broadsheets and  magazines covering these stories of failures? Why success story only make front news?  Well the answer is  because our judgment is simply clouded by a phenomenon well known in statistics called Survivor Bias. In terms of pure math it is blandly defined as the difference between  average risk associated with  success rate  and the average risk of all ventures.  And as usual, my dear readers, math again fails miserably to put things into a lucid  human perspective. So let me explain it by paraphrasing one famous anecdote. The story goes like this:

" During the time of second world war, a certain Navy general was worried about the bombers getting hit by an anti-aircraft artillery gun. So he convened a study for proper armoring of all aircraft. The Center of Naval Analysis then summoned statistician Abraham Wald to inspect all the carriers that returned from mission with bullet holes and asked for his expert opinion.  Most of the planes were hit in the propellers and wings and very few in body. Apparently navy was planning to armor the wings and propellers and overlook the body part. But to everyone's utter surprise Mr. Wald recommended that body be  better armored than the wings and propellers. And his explanation was this, since they were simply inspecting only the planes that had returned safely meaning those planes that were hit on body were likely have never returned and lost in Atlantic. This means the planes had more likelihood to withstand the shots to  wings and propellers while their body was highly vulnerable Therefore upon Mr wald 's recommendation, which though sounded counter intuitive, Navy decided to reinforce the armor on those part of plane which were unscathed upon the return from their mission."

This anecdote thud describe what survivor bias does to our world view. We have this cognitive dissonance of looking at only success side or surviving side and not the failure side at all. And this rule applies for startup as well. For every Facebook there will be hi5 and For every What's app there will be Kincast. So before you take a leap of faith on any startup don't forget to learn lesson from the previous failures. Because believe me when your startup fails it is as painful as losing your own child.