Musing on Shadows

As the sun hung low in west, my shadow lurked along the walls. The sky totally crimson, thanks to Doppler shift towards red zone of visible spectrum with lessening frequency to the perceptible eyes.It still didn’t seemed to have any effect on diluting the umbral section of projection. Owing to the canvas it fell on, the silhouette manifested itself into polymorphic form. Sometime it moved swiftly and later it stood still like dark permanent patch. Shadows are indeed mystery. It is dimensionless, mass less has no density but yet it is present. No form of matter can represent it.

I remember reading a story about how sun god and his wife got into rift because of constant heat he emanated. Finally she had had enough and left him by leaving her shadow in her place. Later on when sun god learned about it he went on a quest to find his wife, and finally found her in form of horse without a shadow. Not only that, even it is said in Ramayan, that Devi Sita was switched with her shadow before Ravan abducted her. Coming to think of it if that was the case, then whole incident of war that ensued was big much ado for nothing. Shadow has prominent place in mythology, especially Shadow beings is mentioned both in folklore and popular culture. There is one line of thinking calling shadow being as the Grey aliens a two dimensional creature. This idea of two dimensional creature though sound very absurd is equally plausible. Because as we humans are three dimensional creatures, we can’t therefore fathom the world which is sandwiched between two three dimensional cubes and its entire essence is within the bounds of that plane. So let’s give shadow beings a benefit of doubt.
Talking about shadow, Wayang Kulit comes first in my mind. It is a form of shadow Puppet Theater that is popular in Indonesia. With compelling story in form of shadow art the entire amalgam is real feast. Meanwhile according to Choctaw mythology, a native American tribe, there are two forms of shadows “shilup” and “shilombish”. Shilup is inside shadow while one that wanders with us is shilombish. When we die shilombish simply wander around as eternal damnation. How morbid.
Besides, there are shadow deals, shadow meeting and shadow relationship, which as being a citizen of poor and corrupt nation we all are well aware of. Also there is shadow pricing, which is actually a physical representation of Lagrangian multiplier in optimization problem, and is a foundation of entire aspiration for welfare state. 
As I was musing suddenly the shadow disappeared into thin air with looming darkness. All of sudden I wondered perhaps during night we reciprocate shadow people as there shadow and it is day there in shadow land.

Preface of Tryst with Inner Guilt (My short story collection published)

We are always told that the world is made of two sides - a good and bad. But do we really know which one is good and which one is bad? In constant struggle for proving ourselves good and others bad unbeknownst we inadvertently all  turn ugly. And this ugliness is what keeping the world from becoming beautiful. So at the end  it's not about becoming good or bad it's about not turning ugly.

I wrote these stories during one of the darkest period of my life. Rudderless. Without any Direction. Why I wrote I simply don't know. I guess I was just trying to discover my inner self. At this moment I would like to take time to thank my publisher for bringing this as a book. I would like to convey my regards to the editors of The Kathmandu Post who without any deliberation without any interaction what's so ever published some of these stories in their paper. Their kindness encouraged me to write more. And I would like to thank my esteemed teacher Mr. Subash Dhungel for time and again pushing me to get this published. Also I would like to extend my gratitude to Prof. Dr. D.P Bhandari for his kind foreword and Prof. Dr. B. D. Chataut who gave me his invaluable advise.

Finally this book is dedicated to my family especially to my father who had always been my rock and my mother who has been fighting with Alzheimer for so long. Oh how I really wish she could read it just for once.

Mundane March

In the streets

Garbage trucks move

Spilling trash on sideways

Where you stand

For lights to turn green

All the while cars splash

Mud from the ditch

Where frogs croak loudest

Looking at clouds

Fearing from thunder

That billow sooty grime

That chokes you

Chokes you till your

Face turns red

But oblivious to your plight

Indifferent crowd marches

A slow death march towards

Daily mundane routine

Work and office work and office and

You take cue and do the same

Like puppet in string followed

By gesture of master

Chasing a mirage of oasis

And after everything is

Said and done finally

you reach home

where Light bulb turns on

And you forget

Forget everything

Courage (old writing from 2011)

Long day is over. With looming darkness the tranquility blanketed the land. And with every passing moment small bright stars started to appear as a tiny dots on celestial sphere. And surreptitiously once azure sky transitioned to crimson and finally settled for dark gossamer of bright specks. Meanwhile the persistent screeches of silence were briefly being punctuated by crashing of waves on the rocks below. Thus the amalgam of monotony simply gave ample alibi for tired eyelids to relax upon already tired eyes.  All of sudden in the half light a silhouette appeared and brandishing the courage that no scimitar can cut through, spoke in crisp, terse and authoritarian manner “Here I am! Kill your emperor if you wish.”  The hortatory challenge impugned the loyalty of the entire troops and in no time the thunderous echo akin to heavy dose of caffeine commandeered the half sleep. And without further a do they all caved in, yelling at the top of their voice “Vive L'Emperur!”.  And thus Napoleon marched into Paris, unseated Louie XVII and ruled for next 100 days until he met his Waterloo.

In this day and age the courage as such is an endangered species. The most courageous thing that anyone has done seems to be eating some disgusting worms to win a stupid competition on Fear factor. And these sickly acts are triumphed in TV station as if it parallels to Hercules killing the Stymphalian birds. It is lamentable that the entire world is simply pursuing a transitory spike in tv ratings and the length people go for grabbing 15 minutes of fame is simply appalling. The best exhibit is balloon boy in America to Anuja Baniya in Nepal. Is media culprit? Of course but equally culpable is the viewers whose insatiable hunger for consuming shocking news has reduced once proud field of journalism into laughing stock. And with all the shenanigans of whether News of the World tapping into the phones of the victims of London Bombing or ESPN’s ridiculous coverage of Lebron James’s big decision one thing is for sure, every unimaginable event has in public eye become quite blasé.   

After going through the plots detailing Napoleonic wars written in old, yellow, dust covered pages from my mother’s diary I realized how awesome it might have been to live through that era, when valor and bravery were considered as an act of honor and when people lived and died by that word. It made me feel that the vanity that we protrude today is puerile in front of those valors of yester years.  History books, literature and ancient text all are all filled with the stories of warriors and kings that went through great lengths of suffering to reach greater heights.     

Courage always reminds me of that famous line from Lord Tennyson’s Lotus eater:

                “COURAGE!” he said, and pointed toward the land,

“This mounting wave will roll us shoreward soon.”

In the afternoon they came unto a land

In which it seemed always afternoon.

This line has several meanings. Of course one implies reaching the paradise where sun never sets. It is a beautiful analogy for prosperity. But reaching that Shangri-La requires courage; courage so big that it can overcome any rising tide that can drift us far from it. 

Cursory glances of my eyes then shifted through all the succeeding republics and settled on lines narrating the establishment of Paris Commune which till this date is idealized by leftist all over the world as perfect manifestation of cradle to grave utopian socialism. The fact further emphasized in Nepali media when in middle of heightened rhetoric our own comrade Badal told the uproarious crowd in Baneshwor that the ultimate goal of Maoist is to establish the Kathmandu commune and on doing so he underscored  an unwavering, unfaltering and unshakeable courage . But alas! All of sudden my animation was broken with shrill cry from surrounding and dogs barking everywhere. And before I could make up anything the ground shook violently and my reflexes immediately understood that it was an earthquake. And eating my pride and swallowing all the courage I ran to the safer grounds. Certainly courage can be romantic in literature but slightest jest of Mother nature can wipe the smugness of so called courageous bunch .  

Critical Analysis on Dr. Baburam Bhattarai's recent lecture on Underdevelopment of Nepal in Tribhuwan University

Had an opportunity to go through the  former Prime Minister Dr. Bhattarai's lecture at Tribhuwan University entitled "THE NATURE OF UNDERDEVELOPMENT & REGIONAL STRUCTURE OF NEPAL: A Marxist Analysis"(http://www.slideshare.net/slideshow/embed_code/37144918#). His exposition on persisting stubborn underdevelopment of Nepal in context of Neo-Marxist theory of movement of surplus value from the periphery towards centre was really succinct and lucid. Being a staunch supporter of Austrian School of Economics  I was rather surprised by his  accurate assessment of poverty in Nepal from Marxist point of view. Especially in his slides he has clearly pointed out that the major economic hurdle Nepal faces is asymmetric trade between India and Nepal since the Sugauli Treaty. The historical reference he has provided regarding the balanced trade Nepal had between both Tibet and India before the Anglo-Nepal war is something every policy maker should heed to. Apparently in both ancient and medieval time Nepal had a vibrant economic trade with both its neighbor. During the time of Sino Chinese war in 18th century Nepal was so powerful that she even decreed Tibet to use our sovereign coins for trade.

 But today's circumstances are completely different. Compared to volume of trade with southern block our trade with northern neighbor is a morsel. Dr. Bhattarai has correctly  pointed to this trade disparity as one of the major obstacle in country's development. He has also pointed out the concentration of workers from all over the countries to major cities such as Kathmandu, Biratnagar and Birgunj as the leading cause of inequitable growth. Besides these two major concerns in his lecture also notes the diminishing marginal return in agricultural sector as another aspect militating against the equitable development. And finally in a very last slide he provides his prescription to break free from vicious spiral of poverty in a trifecta- Federalism, Balance trade  and Inclusive Development. But unfortunately he simply list them out and stop short from providing the proper road map to achieve them.

And this is the point where I think he fails to deliver in his otherwise brilliant lecture. The first issue is of course the most contentious one: Fedralism. He hasn't mentioned on what basis should the lines of federalism be drawn. Further he completely glossed over the political malfeasance  that has so far plagues the entire issue. There is no denying that federalism the only way out from preventing wealth being concentrated only in urban centers, but until the argument of whether using geographical or ethnic basis as criteria for drawing federal map is resolved this issue will remain in limbo. Of course it is really easier said than done. And even after it get solved the other issues such as tariff barriers, state level taxes and equitable sharing of natural resources will undoubtly require extensive exercise before fruits of federalism can be reaped.

As for balancing trade with our neighbor goes this I think will remain a pipe dream until the feeling of enmity between both our neighbors get sorted out. And this of course is beyond our capacity. But that doesn't mean there is nothing we can do. In fact there are few things we can do in our home front. The first thing is trying to make Nepalese currency convertible in India. Second is to make Yuwan fully convertible in Nepal. One other effective option will be instead of fixed peg with Indian Rupees, a new peg should be  establish  with basket of Indian rupees and chinese yuwan, Further currently there is undercurrent brewing in SAARC region to establish single currency governed by same monetary policy. This idea though far-fetched can be very good for Nepal as trying to maintain fixed rate vis a vis India and independent monetary policy , we are witnessing large capital flight as predicted by Impossible Trinity of Mundell-Fleming model. But again the entire premise still hinges on the effective diplomacy. However one encouraging note in this front is establishment of BRICS bank of which both India and China are members. Nepal will need to leverage this new opportunity with skillful shuttle diplomacy in order to bring in capital which unlike the investment from world bank won't be objected by both our neighbor.

Finally the third point Inclusive Development can be achieved only by grass root level movement of increasing local skill and literacy rate. Instead of resorting into populist Affirmative action program, the policy should address towards increasing the core competency level of ethnic minorities. A gramin bank model of financial institution should be established that provides small capital without collateral to women, ethnic minorities, marginalized groups in order to promote small entrepeneurship.

Despite these short comings in his lecture everyone should laud Dr. Bhattarai's trail blazing attempt of sharing his experience with students. Let's hope this prelude will create a knoweledge sharing culture which will be nurtured and in future other policy makers and politicians will also engage in such endeavors.

World Cup and Escapism

After almost a month long festivities, 20th edition of world cup has finally come to an end. And by the early hour of tomorrow a new champion will be crowned thus relegating it to the history books . During this world cup many records were broken both on the pitch and the outside. The match between Brazil and Germany generated most number of tweets. Miroslav Klose became the highest scorer of all time. Neymar broke his back. Some of the underdogs like Costa Rica, Algeria challenged the notion that football is not only the game of elite teams. England  and Portugal kept up its perennial wont of being over hype wind bags by crashing out early.  Meanwhile Portugal cemented their legacy of being chokers. Biggest surprise was of course Spain and total demise of tiki-takka football. On the other hand United State's on again and off again love affair with soccer that seem to rekindle periodically in every four years again surfaced. But this time perhaps alarmed due to high ESPN's rating, right wing commentator Ann Coulter went on vile diatribe against football in general calling it the cultural and moral decadence in American in general. She is entitled to her opinion whatever they may be.  And perhaps most sadly a girl in Nepal killed herself when Brazil lost.

But now as the extravaganza draws close so does this month long escapism or should we rather say a spell of  mass hypnosis. During this period unbeknownst to most so many things happened:  Iraq is falling towards Muslim state with rise of ISIS, Israel and Palestine has gone to war again, Germany has expelled CIA chief , there is  brewing crisis in Ukraine and in our  own home front uncertainty in budget and politics as usual. So question may  arise amidst all these real world problem does the world cup taking center stage is really justifiable? Are we being too narrow minded and selfish that we seem to be oblivion to suffering of our fellow human beings and are too absorbed on absurd notion of who might score a next goal? Doesn't the sport being the major issue has really subjugated us to level of Proles in Orwellian Society?

Well the answer may depend on who you ask.  For me personally answer is no. No, the world cup is not  the distraction and neither is it a escapism. Instead it is the celebration of human virtue. It is the embodiment of all the goodness of mankind, amalgam of human spirit that brings in people of diverse culture irrespective of their cast, creed, ethnicity, sexual orientation, racial background to one common purpose and one common goal. It is a sublime demonstration of brotherhood, helping your team mate, showing courage in front of despair and fight for glory fair and square.

The world has been always divided place. Everything from religion, politics to geographical lines have separated the people and will continue far away in future as well.  But amidst all this the world cup gives a chance, a simple glimmer of hope that in the heart we all are same. We all harbor same hopes and aspiration to be happy and to live life at fullest. And if some moralist accuse us of this as escapism then let it be. Because we all need a short break.

World Cup Mania

World Cup mania is like falling head over heels in love. You lose your sleep and your appetite. You can't think rationally, your head hurts, your work suffer, your professional and personal life suffer. All you can do is ponder upon results , feel ecstatic when your team wins, fall into abyss of despair when they lose. It is a month long whirlwind of romance that brings you joy, pain ,happiness, make you light headed, clear headed ,  make your heart beat go faster and break your heart again and again.

And after month long dizziness she (world cup ) leaves you. She will leave you  behind in the same state of despair as before to the same old boring routine. You feel jilted, dejected and spurned. You feel as if a part of you is gone. And despite the pain and loneliness you can't let go of her. You look forward to meeting her again and again in next four years. You wait for her, you long for her and waiting is all you can do because she is your one true love.

Damn you world cup for ruining everything.

Void

Imagine colors

disappearing from

 a painting

Imagine music

relinquishing

a song

Imagine fragrance

fading from

 a perfume

Imagine humor

escaping from

the joke

Imagine juice

squeezed out

of grapes

Imagine love

forlorn from

the heart

Imagine life

drained out

from body

what's left behind

is nothing

but void.

Cluless World Bank and IMF

World Bank and International Monetary Fund has jointly issued an objection to Nepal Rastra Bank's recent decision to fix the spread rate at 5%. Their main concerns are as follows:

i. Fixing spread rate will discourage bank to give away loans that will eventually stifle the investment environment

ii. Marginalized and poor people who need loan will be greatly affected.

iii. With persisting stubborn excess in liquidity, the bank will be discouraged to accept deposits causing capital flight.

Taking everything into consideration this objection simply shows how myopic and clueless international agencies are with regard to ground scenarios of Nepalese economic condition. Before going further into discourse one has to identify the root cause that compelled NRB to take such drastic measure. This decision came in heels of following prevalent scenario.

i. Commercial Banks were providing  morsel of interest to depositors while making away with huge chunk of profit through interest on loans.

ii. Bad cooperate governance in loan practice led to large amount of irrecoverable bad debts.

Of course the NRB's decision was simply a knee-jerk reaction to somehow contain the afore mentioned situation but it is in no way as bad as portrait by World Banks critique. The reasons are as follows:

a. Nepal's economy do not follow the economic fundamentals of developed economy where fixing the interest rate single handedly  can manage the ills of the entire economy.

b. Prevalent high liquidity and the opportunity cost associated with it isn't the result of interest rate rather it is because of lack of investment environment  caused by political turmoil and absence of proper  infrastructure. So logic of fixing spread rate will stifle investment is an oxymoron, since there is no investment in the first place.

c. The second logic that marginalized and poor people will be somehow affected is completely ludicrous. Because poor and marginalized demographic have hardly been beneficiary for  the loans. Commercial banks only provide loan on frivolous  luxury items such as car loan to high income bracket who can pay off loans.

d. The third logic that the capital flight will take place since bank will not be able accept deposit is by far the most stupid reason.  This is because capital flight is already taking place as the current interest rate do not even cover the inflation rate. The reason of proliferation of so many cooperatives is by far tell tale sign of this situation as people are willing to take more risk with promise of higher interest rate.

So what is the solution?

Since Nepal has taken the path of economic liberalization the fixing of spread rate is certainly a regression. But at the same time it seems NRB has no other option as well. But following steps can be taken into  consideration to mitigate problem.

i. The root cause of all the problems right now is uncontrolled inflation. The double digit inflation must be curbed. If inflation is controlled then people will be encouraged to make deposit even at low interest rate.

ii. Compel bank to charge high interest rate on loan on luxury item.

iii. Make commercial banks compete for granting loans to development program concerning public goods  at lower interest rate.

iv. Put ceiling on the bonuses and salary that banks pay to its high officials.

v. Compel banks to establish the corporate governance by making it mandatory that they plough back the share of profit in granting loans that addresses the need of poor and marginalized community

vi. Provide financial incentives to banks by reducing corporate tax rate, especially  to those banks that provides financial services to rural Nepal.

vii. Impose harsher punishment to those who has committed loan fraud.

Move of Pawn

The pawn sits on the board

brooding on every move

carrying  the weight

of  saving the king

with fear of being sacrificed

 making way for

powerful piece.

The pawn sits on the board

lamenting on every move

entrapped in its fate

towards one direction

on a lonely death march

to die for  some  lost cause

The pawn sits on the board

praying on every move

to reach to the other side

with a faintest glimmer

of hope of turning

 someday into queen.

The pawn sits on the board

waiting for every move

carrying  the weight

of  saving the king

with fear of being sacrificed

making way for

powerful piece

Why has Nepal failed as a state?

Why has Nepal failed as a state?

Around month ago in an edition of Kantipur, senior Journalist Sushil Sharma had posit a challenge to the intellectual crowd to determine why Nepal has failed as a nation? In current context, this  question is highly pertinent and its answer though very plausible needs to be sought . Because  without knowing the reason why country failed there is no way to determine how to move ahead. This is akin to diagnosing a disease without which cure cannot be found.

Now moving back to the question, several reasons might be put forth for why our country has failed as nation so far. Some may say because of  our invariable political turmoil, some may blame our neighbors, some may blame our geographical terrain and land-lockedness and some may blame lack of economic growth. But these factors alone can't be consider as sole contributor for our indigence because there are several instances across world where despite these factors countries have progressed. Let's try to analyze them one by one

a) Political turmoil: For instance name one country which do not suffer from political crisis. Across the board people from  every nation distrust their politician. Whether its developed countries like US, developing country like India or underdeveloped country like Afghanistan people simply don't trust their leaders . Period. 

Yes the gestation period for pipe dream of what's called  Nepal's political stability has been too protracted with over sixty years of experimentation, but if we put this in face value with what France went through then it is nothing.  History of France witnessed  hundred years of reign of terror and what they have now is actually not first or second but fifth republic. If we look at recent history then we can see that countries such as Mexico, Pakistan and even Japan has gone through tremendous political flux and in spite of this they have progressed.

 

b) Neighbors:  Of course our neighboring countries have always wielded their will power on our political system. But this is natural phenomena considering the geo-political situation that Nepal faces. Across the world the similar situation can be witnessed, for instance in all the eastern blocs of previous Soviet Union, Russia plays influential role. Current crisis in Ukraine is best exhibit. Even in Africa former colonial power France meddles in internal conflicts. So this situation cannot be simple pretext for our failure.

c) Economic Turmoil: Nepal has always undergone the economic hardship with large part of her population living under dollar wage a day. Though the statistics have shown uptick in recent times because of remittance flow, most of the economic indicator is still problematic. But one thing we have to understand is that the overall economy of Nepal has never collapsed. We haven't faced any negative Balance Of Payment situation except  during mid-80s.Though the GDP growth is staggering at around 3%, this is still in par with what Nobel Laureate Robert Lucas has called new normal. The biggest problem facing the country right now is stagflation (simultaneous increase in inflation and unemployment).  And further concern is inflation is showing both Demand Pull ( because of remittance) and Cost Push (because of syndicates and monopoly). But despite these it can hardly be cause for calling a nation as failed state since there are other countries which have gone through worst crisis. There are recent instances of bank run in Argentina,  currency collapse in Zimbawe and debt Sovereign in Greece and 15 trillion dollar deficit in US. Nepal hasn't faced anything as such . So our economic woes isn't even mole hill compared to other economic downturns.

d) Geographical context: Yes Nepal is landlocked country and its terrain is hard and rough. With its difficult landscape it is always challenging to bring in the development. But that doesn't give any pretext for our underdevelopment. Further to compensate for it  we have vast resource of minerals waiting to be exploited . It is just our will power that is lacking. Besides the instances of countries like Bolivia, Mongolia simply makes landlockedness a lame excuse for our  underdevelopment.

So the question  still remains why has Nepal failed?

To answer this question we will have to first identify what do every individual in the world desire. Some may sought wealth, some may wish for power , some may desire love, some may want education. The list goes on and on. But among all these there is one common theme and that is - "Freedom and Pursuit of Happiness".

Yes this is what everyone seeks in their life. To have ones free will and to do whatever one wants in life.

The reason this is important is because in today's context majority of Nepalese do not see Nepal as a place where they can reach this ultimate goal. It's not very difficult to establish this assertion. If we ask every youngster what they dream of then majority of them will tell you that it is the foreign land that they seek. Nobody sees their future belonging in Nepal and this applies to both educated and uneducated as well as both skilled and unskilled youngsters. And this trend is not a recent one.Nepalese has penchant of leaving there birthplace since the early times. The word 'Lahure' which came from British Gurkha regiment soldiers stationed at Lahore , has been long established in our vernacular.

This pattern of leaving ones root , language, culture and history for betterment of life can be seen in other countries as well. For example After Russian incursion in late 70s many Afghanis left their homeland. During the time of Indira Gandhi's emergency many Indian left Indians left the country. But unlike Nepalese migration which can be considered as absquatulation those aforementioned cases are prime example of exilation.

Is there a hope?

Until and unless people feel that their future and future of their loved ones are secured in their own homeland, that country will always remain a failed state. But this mentality won't blossom overnight. False patriotism will only make matter worst. But the current instance in China and India do provide the beacon of hope. Many Indians and Chinese are returning back to their country as there is more opportunities in their own homeland. But comparing the situation of Nepal with those of our Nuclear neighbors is ludicrous. So the best thing to do at present context is to conclude Nepal's protracted transition to modern era as quick as possible and establish the rule of law. Because without fulfillment of these two criteria Nepal will never be land where people will be able to enjoy their freedom and pursuit happiness. And till then Nepal will always remain a failed state.

Why software estimates are not accurate:

One of the most exasperating thing any software engineer has to go through is to answer a client's question- "How long do you think it will take to finish this?".  And the second question is "How much is it going to cost?".

Unlike  other discipline, software development is always a new undertaking. It is always an one shot task and involves several variables, that makes its estimation extremely random. And further we human beings are very bad in making estimates. According to Frank Knight in his Risk,Uncertainity and Profits (1925)  every randomness has two components - risk and uncertainty. Among which risk can be measured with knowable probabilities using the standard statistical tool such as coefficient of variance , on the other hand the uncertainty is class of randomness which cannot be attributed to any knowable probability.  With the nature of software lifecycle , together with technological constraints and changing customers requirement the entire software development mostly comprise of Uncertain components rather than risk. As a result apriori estimates will always fall short.

Thus the entire process can be categorized into three categories using the class of awareness and unawareness as explained by Italian Economist Salvatore Modica and Aldo Rustichini in their paper Awareness and partitional information structures (1994)

i) Known Knowns: This is the type of software project where we know what to be done and we know how to do it. For example if we  have developed and school MIS system and now we have task to install it in new school with minor customization. In this scenario the entire software project has changed into the class of Job-shop.

ii. Known Unknowns: This is the class of software project where we know what needs to be done but we really have no idea of how to do it. For example A developer who has experience of developing an droid app needs to integrate his current app with some telephony based system or PSTN. Now lets assume that the developer has never worked in voice before then his project falls into this category. In this scenario he will have to  study Telephony system and will face knowledge cliff and high learning curve  before he can be pretty sure of how long it will take to complete the project. Besides he will have to hire right person with the knowhow . Which will eventually increase hiring and recruitment cost. Open source community is big help in these situations but if the knowledge has been patented then it's really difficult to accomplish it.

iii. Unknown Unknowns:

Though this term has often be dubbed as an abuse of language by former defense secretary Donald Rumsfeld, it is still legit. Software project that belongs to this class can lay claim on highly green pasture of development. For instance developing a software to navigate the robotic probe on surface of Europa (moon of Jupiter). In these scenario the developer neither knows what to do nor how to do it.  And its success will depend on how well the research and development team can handle the unknowns.

Besides these three class of awareness in software development project , one another class can be deduced as per philosopher Salvoj Zizek's extrapolation and that is

 Unknown Knowns: 

This class of problem generally arise in small software companies which witness attrition among its developer with high turn over rate. Without smooth succession planning the developers while leaving the firm takes away all their knowledge as a result the firm will have no knowledge of doing things that they previously had done.

So how to make estimates then ?

This is the big question ? Considering all the above facts it seems unreasonable and extremely presumptuous to make the estimates with any software development projects besides the Job Shop type. But problem is management and customers do not understand this issue. And especially if the gestation period is too long the entire project may turn into jeopardy. Besides the developers are generally more introverted in nature and have hard time communicating the problems .

There are mathematical model such as function point analysis and evidence based estimation. But still using these tools can only mitigate Knightian risk and does not properly address the  Knightian Uncertainity. Therefore the best way is to get involved with customers. Get their regular feedback and apply piecemeal approach. Agile approach is extremely helpful but its main drawback is people may lose sight of goal and rather focus on small task.  

  

So for any successful project following must be done

i. Divide work into piecemeal

ii. Get estimates of smallest tasks

iii. Build strong Knowledge Base

iv. Have separate R&D team that can provide the proof of concept

v. Receive regular feedback from client

vi. Have a proper succession planning

vii. Bugs are part of life , deal with it

viii. Never think that your estimates are correct. The best rule is estimates are never correct

ix. Never  have marketing team decide on the deadlines (most important). 

All I want

When the rain falls

I seek out for sun

and when sun comes

I look out for clouds

And when the thunder rolls

I fancy the snow

and when sleet arrives

I long for breeze

and when wind blows

I do rain dance

My unsettled mind is ephemeral

as all I want is a rainbow