Rest easy Maiya

Fifteen years! How long is fifteen years? It’s very hard to say. I still remember when I was fifteen; I was in ninth grade, full of vigor, full of energy, had my first crush, no thinking about tomorrow, life revolved around the next football match and which song to listen to. That time fifteen years seemed like forever.  Comparing that fifteen years with the last fifteen years the relativeness, futility, and sorrow of life comes into full perspective.  I will never forget that moment fifteen years ago in September of 2004 when I first realized that my mother is no longer able to read and write. The woman who taught me everything, who held two master's degrees, was unable to recognize her own handwriting and could not figure out a single letter.  A few weeks later doctors diagnosed her with early stages of Alzheimer’s. One of the rarest forms of pre-senile dementia. She had just turned forty-nine. My entire world shook in a minute. I didn’t know what was next. All my plans, hopes, and dreams dashed in a single shudder. Life stood still. Doctors just gave us two years to a maximum of three.

I don’t know how the past fifteen years went by. Every day was suffering, pain piled up over pain,  the sisyphean ordeal, a fight against invisible disease without any cure. Slowly she lost her faculties, senses and eventually bedridden.  In those years I got an engineering degree, drew the first salary, published a book, got a tenured job, got married, and had a baby. But my mother was unbeknownst to all of these, all my life’s milestones she never knew. God knows how I longed to hear her voice at least just for once. But despite that I knew every night when I spoke to her before I went to sleep, deep down she understood.   Now after all these years of struggle against unwinnable battle finally she drew her last breath on Tuesday.  

Losing one’s mother is the greatest irreparable loss one can ever experience. Now after consigning her to flames, a huge void, an abysmal emptiness has been left behind in my heart. But I know at least now she is free, emancipated from all the pain, and nothing can harm her anymore. And for me, that is an ultimate solace. All I can think of right now is the poignant line by Yann Martel - “Afterwards, when it's all over, you meet God. What do you say to God?”

Rest well Maiya. Love you. Always.

Insight on philosophical quandary of knowledge

Few days ago I was going through the first part of Robert Pirsig's celebrated book -  Zen and Art of Motorcycle Maintenance .  Though I haven't completed the book yet, the lines mentioning Phaedrus's knife and how everything in the world  can be described through the lenses of  classical or romantic angle, brought me back similar concept in  philosophy of ontology, epistemology, methodology and metaphysics. These terms, that any PhD Scholar or Research student dealing with science in general would have encountered during their scholarship, bring forth several confusion and debates. I have no intention in stoking it further as the argument has been ongoing since time of Plato. If we were to Google the terms , Ontology describes what things are , while epistemology explains the way we know things. On the other hand metaphysics deals with abstract concept of why things are as they are while methodology provides tool to gain the knowledge. Main difficulty in comprehending these terms can be attributed to fact that they are sometimes so closely related and often overlapping one can hardly segregate two. So since I love analogy I try to shed some confusion with an example. Since I am no way a practitioner philosopher correct me if I am wrong.

Exhibit: A leaf in a tree

Ontology:  What is the color of leaf? It is green because empirical (data from observation rather than logic) evidence says so

Epistemology: How do we know the color of leaf is green? A child might answer because my mother says so. If you are botanist then you may say because chlorophyll in leaves make it green.

Methodology: Verify the color of leaf using the spectral analysis and determine that the photons emanating from leaves have corresponding frequency in green part of visible spectrum

Metaphysics: Is  the leaf green in real or does it appear so only to me? Or does color green appear same to me as well as others.

Based on the cited example alone one can see how science and any other philosophical discourse for matter as simple as color of leaf can have such wide and varied interpretation. So if you are vigorously debating any scientific or philosophical point of view be aware that the way you look at the things may not be right answer in actuality. 

Goodbye Rockey

Last time I saw him, I don't know what he was trying to tell me but my gut says it was goodbye. More than ten days have passed since he left and I can still feel his presence. Rockey came to us one  cold evening in December of 2003. I still remember him peering out of the little jute bag in which he was carried by my father. Upon the sight of young pup we were ambivalent whether to keep him or give him away. Who is going to feed him or take care of him? Questions remained. But his cuteness was too strong and we yielded. He became part of family.

For past 12 years he had been my buddy, my counsel and my confidant. He was there during my darkest hours and during my brightest moment. For over the years  he became my rock. I could talk to him about anything and he listened with Zen mysticism. For almost ten years he slept in my bed and my morning always began with his wet muzzle touching my face. Oh how I used to curse at him.

But now as he is gone I look at the empty couch where he curled  and I feel hollowness sip through my veins. I  just wish for once I could gaze into his endearing eyes and hold him close to my heart. But its not going to happen and only god knows how much I miss him. I just pray that he is in heaven now and is frolicking along side Eddie and Mr. Rabbit two of my other beloved pets. All I want to say - see you in another life , brother.

Links to my Research

Readers can follow my research and papers at https://independent.academia.edu/DipeshKarki

Counterfactuals, What If , Turing Machines and Oh My

"If she had said yes things would have certainly been different" - my dear readers I  caught your attention, didn't I? Well what can I say sentence like these really act like a bait to fish in public these days as attention deficit is running wild. Anyway without digressing further  into my personal romantic escaped which I may tell you totally sucks, lets jump into the subject of today's disquisition.  Look at the first question again, i can guarantee that almost everyone of us sometimes or other have pondered a hypothetical world  that differs from reality that we live in. Call it wishful thinking, fantasy , cynicism whatever you may as I welcome you to the world of "Counterfactuals".

Counterfactuals are in general  a hypothetical scenario that would have occurred had certain conditions prevailing at the given time were different. Now why is this important? It is important because it is the main foundation on the basis of which we carry out any debate that can range from policy prescription to economic decision to personal choices.  Determining the counterfactuals is essential as it helps to identify whether the decision we made had actual impact on the outcome or not, especially for assessing the situation that involves the  pre-post scenario. For instance let's say local government has introduced a scheme or awareness program for promoting girl education. Now let's say after the intervention literacy rate among girls ticked up. Now as usual politicians will tout the achievement and general public will also buy into it. But while comparing the scenario before intervention and after intervention we miss-out one crucial counterfactual and that is what would have happened if there were no intervention? Would the literacy rate have remained same or would it have been different? What would be your answer? Take a break have a Kitkat and think again for second. In general people would opine that without intervention the situation would have been same as before. But here is the catch, on doing so we may have overlooked the fact that perhaps the girl's literacy rate was already rising in the first place, that is  even before intervention started. If so then it simply implies that policy intervention had no effect what so ever instead it simply reinforced the eventual outcome.

The best example of not considering counterfactuals comes from Fredric Bastiat under celebrated phenomena that all Austrian School economist love to cite called "Broken Glass Fallacy". According to which once a ruffian kid broke the window of a baker with a brickbat. The crowd gathered and at first wanted to punish the kid. But a wise guy argued, since the kid broke the window now glazier will get the job to repair it. The money he earned will be then spent for cobbler to mend his shoe. The cobbler will then buy meat from the butcher who in turn will buy a bread from baker. So the same money that would have remained idle with baker would now circulate and make every one better off by increased wealth. In surface this appears too good to be true, but if you look at the undercurrent you'll find that had the glass window not been broken in the first place then baker might have put it in bank which would have lent out to others, thus stream rolling all the asserted economic activities. So you see breaking things to create wealth is not a good idea at all. Otherwise we should simply bomb our cities so that there will be more demand for repairs and unemployment goes down. Sounds stupid isn't it.

The question now arise is why counterfactuals invariably appears in worldly affair? Perhaps the answer is in quantum physics according to which world we live in happens because of chance. Out of infinite possibility as a result of particle wave duality there is only one reality in which we live. So there are always several possibilities and only one outcome. One may downplay impact of counterfactual like great Morpheus did in Matrix Reloaded "what happened, happened and couldn't have happened any other way" ( aside: isn't it ironic that the both Matrix sequel sucked big time and couldn't have happened any other way"). But when our decisions are forward looking that notion of ignoring counterfactuals will be a Pollyanna thinking.

Now at this point you must be thinking  if counterfactuals are something that haven't occurred at all then how to determine their effect in first place? How to properly quantify them ? Is there any standard tools to measure it? unfortunately the answer is no. Especially in research methodology there is something called Randomized Control Trial that segregates the control and intervention variable to produce ceteris paribus condition so as to isolate the effect of intervention only . But again choice of control variable itself is presumptuous putting dent to entire argument. Meanwhile perusal of any standard text book on Capital Budgeting provides you with tool such as Decision tree, What If and Scenario Analysis. These are all based on Bayesian Analysis and Prior Probabilities which entails degree of risk under certain apriori conditions. But they again miserably fail to account for counterfactuals as it is  less about risk and more of the domain of uncertainty.  Besides this of course in economics there are some concepts called Opportunity cost and Excess Profit  that do give some hope. but alas, how far do they gauge  in actuality is in itself a counterfactual.

So what else then. Some might say- "Hey let's build Ultracomputers that can crunch Yottabyte of data ( mind you that will make a Big Data a girly number) and sort out all the possible outcomes from all the possible counterfactuals". Tempting as  it may sound but it is not tenable either. The reason is something called Church Turing Thesis which says only those mathematical problem that can be solved by Turing machine is computable. But as counterfactuals generate infinite possibility it cannot be solved by Turing machine and hence is not computable at all. So no matter how fast or how large machine you built still the solutions will elude you. Of course there is possibility of it being solved using Hypercomputers but till this date as Mathematician Martin Davis asserted, it is still a technological  myth akin to elephant graveyard. Therefore with utter disappointment we have to throw towel and say we give up. There is no way we can determine all possible outcome and determine the correct path. So whatever happens, happens for good. Kind of solace isn't it? Reminds me of grape was sour adage.

Anyway to sum up if tomorrow someone asks you why are you still single or why you are so indecisive in your career, job or personal life. Just tell them you are weighing in on Counterfactuals. And if they give you puzzled look just suggest them to read this essay. I will definitely owe you one.

                                                        

Religious Freedom

14 years ago, before I dropped out of Medical school, one thing that really exasperated me during my stay in Bangladesh was being constantly asked by strangers  what my religion was even before they asked me my name. I hated the idea that my entire identity can be wrapped up into my personal faith. Now after nearly one and half decade later  it seems this vile poison of sectarian conflict and xenophobic tendency is raising its ugly head in my own motherland. Having been born into Hindu family, completing kindergarten in Buddhist school ,growing up in Muslim surrounding in Bagbazar and playing cricket with  Christian friends in the playground of Padma Kanya Campus, watching these events unfold is too painful. Who is to blame? Everyone:

a) Secularist: Irony is they don't even know what secularism is. People saying secularism means freedom of religion makes me laugh out loud. Secularism that came from French laïcité means government and legislature cannot draft any laws on the basis of religious teaching. Secularism concept came in Nepal to weaken the Monarchy and all political party gave silent nod to it. And now they are having cold feet. What you sow is so you reap. Touché!

b) Hindu fundamentalist: Hindu fundamentalist say secularism will destroy country because in future Christian missionaries will pour in money to proselytize the mass. My question is why don't you raise voice against cast system, poverty, remove the tradition that binds women. If you do that then believe me nobody is going to be cajoled out from their personal faith for money.

c) Political Correctness: There is vast majority of Nepalese who are as Nixon said Silent Majority, they are afraid to voice their opinion because of fear of political incorrectness. One thing if you don't stand for anything then you'll fall for everything. Political correctness doesn't mean morality. And this political correctness is sowing seed for the future conflict for our children's generation

d)   Politician: Do I even need to explain anything more. All they care is strengthening  their vote bank.

So whether you are secularist, agnostic, atheist, Hindu, Buddhist, Muslim, Christian, fundamentalist, traditionalist, Marxist or believer of any faith or non-faith remember we all are Nepalese first. So live and let live.  Uphold your tradition and don't let outsiders dictate how we should govern. Stoking religious fervor is the worst thing that can happen to any society . Reminds me of line from great Bhupi Serchan-

अभिशप्त घर

जब-जब बाँया र दाँया पट्टिका छिमेकीहरुले 
एक अर्काको छाना माथि ढुङा बर्साउछन,
यस घरको छानामा घाम ताप्न बसेकी बुढीको चश्मा र
कौसीमा रमिता हेरिरहेकी दुलहीका चुराहरु फुट्छन,
आधा रातमा जना छिमेकीहरुले आपसमा 
जहाबाट जे पायो त्यसैले कुटाकुट गर्छन, 
भोलीपल्ट ब्युझेर यस घरको बातको रोगी बुढाले
आफ्नो लौरी भाचिएको पाउंछ। 
यस्तो छ अभिशप्त घर
डढेलोको बीचमा उम्रेको रुख जस्तो छ यो घर।

Political Terms for dummies

As constitution drafting process is coming to close there seems to be lot of misconception among general public regarding the various political terminologies being used in preamble of constitution. This confusion is somehow fueled by  political parties with ulterior motive attempting to misquote everything for their own gain. Which is eventually resulting into a vitriol rather than civilized public debate . So here I try to explain few of these terms from what I have understood so far, please correct it if I am wrong:

i. लोकतन्त्र (Democracy): rule of people. Especially rule of majority. Majority can make law

ii. गणतन्त्र (Republic):  There are certain laws  that cannot be voted away by majority. Safe guards minorities. It protects the rights of the individual and doesn't matter what a majority says. FOr example: Freedom of speech.

iii. जनतन्त्र (People's republic): This is not in our constitutional draft and used in communist state. This implies rule of people has been established and hence it cannot be voted away by majority. It is extreme form of republic.

iv. धर्मनिरिपेक्षता (Secularism): This implies parliament cannot draft laws based on writing , belief or teaching  of any particular religion. In US separation of church and state is based on this. Also India is secular country but Muslim communities insist on Sharia Law. For example in Muslim countries Alcohol and Pork is banned while in Hindu state Beef is banned.

v. बहुलवाद (Pluralism): According to this any group of people, unions or lobby group not necessarily political party can have say in formation of government . For example Engineers Association, Doctors Association etc can directly participate in political process.

vi. बहुदलबाद ( multi party system): Only those political parties registered in election commission can be able to participate in political process. Other groups like association, unions or lobby group can only put  pressure indirectly.

vii. समाजबाद (socialism): Social ownership of means of production. The main agenda of government is to create a welfare state. In Nepal's draft constitution it is mentioned that Mepal will be socialism oriented country.

viii. समानुपातिक बन्द सूची (Close List): Those who will be elected from proportional voting will be decided by party after the election result. Nepal is following close list system, parties do mention all the names of potential proportional candidate but the selection will be ultimately after the election. Personally I feel this as most un-democratic aspect of our current constitution.

ix. समानुपातिक खुल्ला सूची (Open List): Contrary to close list here the parties have to declare in serial order who will be elected into the parliament when proportional threshold is crossed before election.

 x. रास्ट्रियता (Nationalism): Political belief of making nationalistic pride as main agenda. Followed by King Mahendra and Panchayaat system. Any poltical belief that contradicts with national interest will be outlawed.

xi. प्रत्यक्ष निर्बाचित कार्यकारी प्रमुख (Direct election of head of government): In this system head of government is elected by direct popular vote. This is used in France , Ireland etc but contrary to popular notion  even in US it is not practiced, as POTUS is decided by Electoral college ( That was the reason George W. Bush won against Al gore in 2000). In Nepal this was advocated by Maoist ( Direct election of president) and  UML (Direct election of Prime Minister). Both of the parties main line has abandoned this now.

xii. अप्रत्यक्ष निर्बाचित कार्यकारी प्रमुख (Westminister System):  Popular in most commonwealth country including India where Prime Minister forming a government must have majority vote of confidence in Parliament. In Nepal this model has been proposed in new constitution draft.  Nepali Congress adamantly supports this. Critiques says this will result in same old political bickering, buying selling of member of parliament  and will ultimately result in unstable government. Meanwhile proponents of this oppose direct election as it can lead to devaluation of parliament.

Road Ahead

On the aftermath of the great earthquake, Government has decided to handout 2 lakh Rs to all those who have lost their home.  Now opposition at both left Maoist and right Kamal Thapa Group is protesting that it is not enough, meanwhile our finance minister and some prominent economist like Dr. Pyakurel and Mr. Rameshwor Devkota are saying it is too big amount that can lead to loose money resulting in inflationary pressure.  I think both sides are wrong:

i) Yes 2 Lakh Rs is not enough to build one's home. Even if they build one it will be temporary shed that will not be able to withstand another earthquake. But handing out more cash is not solution as it can't be properly tracked, might be used for gambling and alcohol consumption. Last week in Sindhupalchowk me and my friends found that out first hand as many of victims were seemingly drunk. Besides the cash can be misused and may go to hand of those who are not actual victims.

ii. As for inflationary pressure argument goes that classical scholars are babbling about won't happen because the victims are not going to spend the handout to buy luxury goods. Besides the government that earmarks fund to support various welfare scheme to bulwark it's core political base arguing this time  around against giving handout to those who actually  needs welfare is downright pathetic.

So what is the way around:

a) Instead of cash handout government should rebuild the house themselves. In every wards of VDC the cheaper and earthquake tolerant house should be constructed with proper sanitation using environment friendly indigenous resources. Certainly the amount required will shoot above 2 lakh  but this will ensure that cash won't be misused.  Further this won't lead to inflation as it will be counted as government spending.

b) For the farmers who have lost their livestock a cheaper loan at zero interest should be provided.

c) An independent audit firm like big four should audit all spending to make sure that funds is not misappropriated.

 The path to rebuilding and rehabilitation is  long and weary but can be achieved only with sound strategy and not populist knee-jerk reaction. There is no way to recompense the loss but the steps henceforth should be judicial, equitable and humane.

Earthquake Nepal 2015 and my personal confession

Many years from now if someone would ask me what was it like experiencing the Earthquake of 2015 then I would not narrate them where I was and what I did and I would not explain how it felt. Instead I would tell them one thing and that one thing is -  "it changed me". Yes, this natural calamity changed me to my inner core. What changed me  wasn't the nerve wrecking  low humming sound of striking shock-wave which still rings my ear  nor  was it the terrifying experience of watching people running for their life and of course it wasn't the sight of death and destruction that ensued(which sounds cruel indeed. I guess I have become numbed with violence we witness everywhere ). But instead it was something more personal , something more to my heart.

All my life there is one thing that I have ever been proud of and that one thing is my devotion towards my family. Ever since my mother was diagnosed with Alzheimer's over ten years ago , I had forgone many  opportunities  and prospects just to be beside her. Over the course of time , that feeling of humbleness of taking care of her despite all the odds outgrew within me into something very  vile and  something very dark, a  feeling of moral superiority  .  In recent times I used to wear that smugness of self-righteousness on my sleeve, unabashedly like the selfie generation posing with victory symbol while doing charitable deeds.   But in one single jolt the earthquake wiped that  entire smugness off my face.

I was seating in front my laptop doing some busy work (yes, I work on Saturday as well . Isn't that pathetic?). And all of sudden I felt as if my feet were bobbing up on surface of water and not firm on ground. The tremor came with such a force that for instant you lose your entire faculty. And I knew that earthquake has struck. For a moment I thought of my mother in her bed . I couldn't decide whether to go and protect her and ensure her safety or try to run for my own life. And then I ran. I ran like a chicken that I was. And within a few seconds I was down to the ground.  After abandoning her  in third storey ,from the safety of my garden where the jasmine and rose were blooming with mellow sweetness I watched with horror how my house swayed with the tremor. And in that dreadful moment that lasted for few minutes I realized how hollow and how weak my resolve was. I felt empty, mute and impotent. It felt like eternity. Finally when it stopped I ran to top and into her room. And as usual my mother was smiling care free.  And when I saw myself in mirror I didn't see myself, but what I saw was a shell of arrogant guy struck by nature's whiplash.  I saw a broken man who abandoned someone he loved dearly in face of natural calamity. I was a just a sucker, a chickenshit who was taught  a hard lesson by nature that in this world there is no guarantees and damn there is no such thing as unwavering resolve. These crisis certainly  brings forth true color of people and sadly mine was yellow.

Now my personal lamentation in face of such crisis that has befallen over our nation is certainly  minuscule and it doesn't mean a diddly-squat. Many people have lost their lives, family, friends ,fortune and everything. This earthquake has certainly shown that it doesn't matter whether you are rich, poor, religious, agnostic, self-righteous or depraved; nature is always a great equalizer. The wound that this disaster has inflicted might heal with time but undoubtedly the scar will always remain. And this scar is a painful reminder to all of us that in life never take anything for granted. Live life right here and right now because this very moment you have can be usurped at any instant. Never think that your  job and your career  is important, what is important is how you make difference with your work and your job. Never think that earning money is important, what is more important is you didn't earned it on other's expense. Never make  your deadlines and your personal goals as your priority, they can always take back seat , what  really is important is telling your loved one how much you care. Because this moment might be lost in an instant. And for all those who survived this disaster lets extend our helping hand because our motherland really needs one.

Before this write-up bloviates into a self-loathing , boring preachy  monologue. I just want to say one thing at the end in lighter note, No matter how much advancement we have made in technology. Radio still rules.  

Startups and Survivor Bias

Startups are sexy. There is no doubt about it. Just take a sneak peek into any of national or international business magazines and you'll see  a blurb or story about new startups  which seems to be ubiquitously mushrooming every  right and left. Everywhere you see the glossy magazines cover where smiling faces shows the new cool kids in town with their new shiny product with promise of changing the world that we live in. Just talk to your neighbors, your childhood friend or your office colleagues and you'll find each one is currently  being involved in one way or the other in  some form of startup ideas that ranges from new App that helps you to get rid of your dog fleas or an aerosol to clean your toilet. Or social entrepreneurship venture that promise to sale grandmother's chutney online or an environmental initiative to explore adventure agriculture (growing weeds). The list goes on and on. Who knows your idea might become next big thing akin to Wello or  Barefoot power or even bigger Uber someday. Who knows perhaps Peter Theil himself is watching your every move and may surprise you with lucrative Term Sheet during your next venture round.

So  the question is are these start ups really a new phenomena. Of course not.  On the contrary it is just a term representing different flavor of entrepreneurship which fueled by promising engineering graduates and smart fresh MBAs  have recently entered into what Carl Jung defines as our Collective Unconscious.   Borrowing word from Nicolas Nassim Taleb startups are indeed a black swan or a form of Schumpeterian creative destruction that drives the wedge on status quo. They put innovation into driving seat and is a leading barometer of changing products and taste

However, this startup culture whether good or bad has undoubtedly done one thing and that is create a dilemma, something right out of Shakespearian soliloquy "To be or not to be" . A question that seem to plague everyone - should they give up everything they are doing right now and jump into startup bandwagon? Will it be more fun and more productive? Will they make more money and have bigger impact on society?    Honestly there is no clear cut answer to this. Everyone has their one view. Meanwhile, having been involved in three startups during past ten years under different capacity from software developer to solution architect to CTO,   I personally would say   "Good Luck" (Aside Note : All three had been utter failure otherwise you would have been reading my success story in Quora rather than my own lamentation in my personal blog page).  And yes luck is the huge factor. For any startup to succeed you should have right product, at right time at right place. Otherwise no matter how smart or innovative your product is at the end of the day  you will be swimming in a cesspool of misery.

Now you might ask why don't we hear about this? Why aren't  any broadsheets and  magazines covering these stories of failures? Why success story only make front news?  Well the answer is  because our judgment is simply clouded by a phenomenon well known in statistics called Survivor Bias. In terms of pure math it is blandly defined as the difference between  average risk associated with  success rate  and the average risk of all ventures.  And as usual, my dear readers, math again fails miserably to put things into a lucid  human perspective. So let me explain it by paraphrasing one famous anecdote. The story goes like this:

" During the time of second world war, a certain Navy general was worried about the bombers getting hit by an anti-aircraft artillery gun. So he convened a study for proper armoring of all aircraft. The Center of Naval Analysis then summoned statistician Abraham Wald to inspect all the carriers that returned from mission with bullet holes and asked for his expert opinion.  Most of the planes were hit in the propellers and wings and very few in body. Apparently navy was planning to armor the wings and propellers and overlook the body part. But to everyone's utter surprise Mr. Wald recommended that body be  better armored than the wings and propellers. And his explanation was this, since they were simply inspecting only the planes that had returned safely meaning those planes that were hit on body were likely have never returned and lost in Atlantic. This means the planes had more likelihood to withstand the shots to  wings and propellers while their body was highly vulnerable Therefore upon Mr wald 's recommendation, which though sounded counter intuitive, Navy decided to reinforce the armor on those part of plane which were unscathed upon the return from their mission."

This anecdote thud describe what survivor bias does to our world view. We have this cognitive dissonance of looking at only success side or surviving side and not the failure side at all. And this rule applies for startup as well. For every Facebook there will be hi5 and For every What's app there will be Kincast. So before you take a leap of faith on any startup don't forget to learn lesson from the previous failures. Because believe me when your startup fails it is as painful as losing your own child.

Dot

Look towards  the horizon

there you'll see a dot

where our vision meets

reminding us that

someday
despite our prejudices
despite our differences
despite our indifference
we will be together

someday
despite our  aspirations
despite our  frailties
despite our faith
we will join the hand

someday
despite our fear
despite our  frustrations
despite our disappointments
we will claim the paradise

hope to see you
at the dot

4 'T' of marketing. A musing on Four letters

I am not a marketing guy. For me it is purely a voodoo science like an ancient alchemy trying to convert Philosopher stone into a gold. Sight of customer scares me. To explain to them all the nitty gritty things about product or getting their feedback is a nightmare. In my almost ten years of experience in software development I hardly entertained  a call with client. If I had to, I would always make an alibi to somehow put it off. And believe me those few instance that simply couldn't be obviated,  had been so bad its even hard to put  it into words. Trying to balance two contradictory forces of maintaining good veneer  all the while temper rising underneath is akin to unstoppable force hitting immovable object. In the hindsight I am glad that I kept that zen mystic going throughout otherwise the entire meeting might have dissolved into a brawl for all.

 My first foray into the subject was much maligned. During my  MBA course the portion of 4P- Price Product , Place and Promotion as the fundamental tenet for entire marketing  was pedantic and boring, that I was completely sure that I would flunk it. The only thing I knew about marketing then was advertisement. Like Marlboro man lighting the cigarette or in Mad Men episode Don Draper giving that demo of wheel and using all that nostalgia as theme. You can check it out on Youtube, the best marketing pitch you'll ever see.

But coming back to marketing before even digesting the topic I was thrown into another curve ball with 4C- Customer, Cost, Convenience and Communication. Though seemingly same thing they have subtle difference with 4C main emphasis on Customer rather than market. Then I remembered the age old adage- "Customer is God". That made lot of sense. But what if God is an idiot. How is one going to market that situation? Something puzzling. Perhaps one should ask late Steve Jobs. Apparently his turtle neck sweater sure did know how to create that itch in the back of customer for them to be lured into a honey trap.  

And of course as I was wading through 4C all the while scouring the net, with grim countenance I learned that some wise marketing  guru has come up with 4V - Validity, Value, Venue and Vogue. The whole idea was to put what customer actually values as center  of focus rather than product or services. Pretty smart. Why didn't anyone think about it before. Seems apparent enough. And as I was pondering and going through reddit forum suddenly my eyes fail upon 4E of marketing - namely Experience, Exchange, Evangelism and Everyplace. Something that propped up from teaching of Jerome McCarthy (Note no connection what so ever with Joseph  McCarthy) regarding inbound marketing. Believe me at this point I seriously wanted to imitate that protagonist of Edward Munch "Scream" and made wailing cry on top of bridge. But alas I was sitting in my room in front of my laptop and that would certainly wake up my dog, which was the last thing I wanted to do.

Then all of sudden a epiphany like jolt of thunder hit me. Hey why don't coin your own 4 alphabet that describes marketing. Sounds cool enough. But is there anything left that Michael Porter and et hasn't unearthed yet. But still it was an adventure right. So there I was sitting in front of my laptop and juxtaposing some invalid thoughts and like waving Magic Wanda came 4T which goes like this -Trust, Traction, Technology and Trend.

a) Trust: If people trust your service or product then they will buy it no matter what. It's the best bait and nothing can beat it

b) Traction: You don't want a onetime customer. You want your customer to be a milk cow that you can milk every day. Success of your business certainly depends on returning customer. If you don't have that traction then you are nothing but a street peddler.

c) Technology: Do I need to say more about this? It is a buzz word. Attach technology to anything and it becomes cool. I wonder why they haven't come up with the word called Political Technology yet. Anyway use technology to innovate your product. It does not need to be big but simply out of box and you'll discover that sales are up and costs are down

d) Trend: You don't have to be Karl Lagerfeld to define trend. Trend is something hip. It's like selling same old garbage in shiny new wrapper. Only trick is making people think it's something out of this world that they simply can't ignore it.  I remember few years back I told a offshore developer to contact me in hotmail and she said that is so 2000.  You don't want to be that. Key is your product should be something that people talk about. At the end it is all show business.

Anyway this disquisition is getting kind of long. Who knows 4T might also catch up and become more trendy.  Believe me that's my own marketing ploy.

Musing on Shadows

As the sun hung low in west, my shadow lurked along the walls. The sky totally crimson, thanks to Doppler shift towards red zone of visible spectrum with lessening frequency to the perceptible eyes.It still didn’t seemed to have any effect on diluting the umbral section of projection. Owing to the canvas it fell on, the silhouette manifested itself into polymorphic form. Sometime it moved swiftly and later it stood still like dark permanent patch. Shadows are indeed mystery. It is dimensionless, mass less has no density but yet it is present. No form of matter can represent it.

I remember reading a story about how sun god and his wife got into rift because of constant heat he emanated. Finally she had had enough and left him by leaving her shadow in her place. Later on when sun god learned about it he went on a quest to find his wife, and finally found her in form of horse without a shadow. Not only that, even it is said in Ramayan, that Devi Sita was switched with her shadow before Ravan abducted her. Coming to think of it if that was the case, then whole incident of war that ensued was big much ado for nothing. Shadow has prominent place in mythology, especially Shadow beings is mentioned both in folklore and popular culture. There is one line of thinking calling shadow being as the Grey aliens a two dimensional creature. This idea of two dimensional creature though sound very absurd is equally plausible. Because as we humans are three dimensional creatures, we can’t therefore fathom the world which is sandwiched between two three dimensional cubes and its entire essence is within the bounds of that plane. So let’s give shadow beings a benefit of doubt.
Talking about shadow, Wayang Kulit comes first in my mind. It is a form of shadow Puppet Theater that is popular in Indonesia. With compelling story in form of shadow art the entire amalgam is real feast. Meanwhile according to Choctaw mythology, a native American tribe, there are two forms of shadows “shilup” and “shilombish”. Shilup is inside shadow while one that wanders with us is shilombish. When we die shilombish simply wander around as eternal damnation. How morbid.
Besides, there are shadow deals, shadow meeting and shadow relationship, which as being a citizen of poor and corrupt nation we all are well aware of. Also there is shadow pricing, which is actually a physical representation of Lagrangian multiplier in optimization problem, and is a foundation of entire aspiration for welfare state. 
As I was musing suddenly the shadow disappeared into thin air with looming darkness. All of sudden I wondered perhaps during night we reciprocate shadow people as there shadow and it is day there in shadow land.

Preface of Tryst with Inner Guilt (My short story collection published)

We are always told that the world is made of two sides - a good and bad. But do we really know which one is good and which one is bad? In constant struggle for proving ourselves good and others bad unbeknownst we inadvertently all  turn ugly. And this ugliness is what keeping the world from becoming beautiful. So at the end  it's not about becoming good or bad it's about not turning ugly.

I wrote these stories during one of the darkest period of my life. Rudderless. Without any Direction. Why I wrote I simply don't know. I guess I was just trying to discover my inner self. At this moment I would like to take time to thank my publisher for bringing this as a book. I would like to convey my regards to the editors of The Kathmandu Post who without any deliberation without any interaction what's so ever published some of these stories in their paper. Their kindness encouraged me to write more. And I would like to thank my esteemed teacher Mr. Subash Dhungel for time and again pushing me to get this published. Also I would like to extend my gratitude to Prof. Dr. D.P Bhandari for his kind foreword and Prof. Dr. B. D. Chataut who gave me his invaluable advise.

Finally this book is dedicated to my family especially to my father who had always been my rock and my mother who has been fighting with Alzheimer for so long. Oh how I really wish she could read it just for once.

Mundane March

In the streets

Garbage trucks move

Spilling trash on sideways

Where you stand

For lights to turn green

All the while cars splash

Mud from the ditch

Where frogs croak loudest

Looking at clouds

Fearing from thunder

That billow sooty grime

That chokes you

Chokes you till your

Face turns red

But oblivious to your plight

Indifferent crowd marches

A slow death march towards

Daily mundane routine

Work and office work and office and

You take cue and do the same

Like puppet in string followed

By gesture of master

Chasing a mirage of oasis

And after everything is

Said and done finally

you reach home

where Light bulb turns on

And you forget

Forget everything

Courage (old writing from 2011)

Long day is over. With looming darkness the tranquility blanketed the land. And with every passing moment small bright stars started to appear as a tiny dots on celestial sphere. And surreptitiously once azure sky transitioned to crimson and finally settled for dark gossamer of bright specks. Meanwhile the persistent screeches of silence were briefly being punctuated by crashing of waves on the rocks below. Thus the amalgam of monotony simply gave ample alibi for tired eyelids to relax upon already tired eyes.  All of sudden in the half light a silhouette appeared and brandishing the courage that no scimitar can cut through, spoke in crisp, terse and authoritarian manner “Here I am! Kill your emperor if you wish.”  The hortatory challenge impugned the loyalty of the entire troops and in no time the thunderous echo akin to heavy dose of caffeine commandeered the half sleep. And without further a do they all caved in, yelling at the top of their voice “Vive L'Emperur!”.  And thus Napoleon marched into Paris, unseated Louie XVII and ruled for next 100 days until he met his Waterloo.

In this day and age the courage as such is an endangered species. The most courageous thing that anyone has done seems to be eating some disgusting worms to win a stupid competition on Fear factor. And these sickly acts are triumphed in TV station as if it parallels to Hercules killing the Stymphalian birds. It is lamentable that the entire world is simply pursuing a transitory spike in tv ratings and the length people go for grabbing 15 minutes of fame is simply appalling. The best exhibit is balloon boy in America to Anuja Baniya in Nepal. Is media culprit? Of course but equally culpable is the viewers whose insatiable hunger for consuming shocking news has reduced once proud field of journalism into laughing stock. And with all the shenanigans of whether News of the World tapping into the phones of the victims of London Bombing or ESPN’s ridiculous coverage of Lebron James’s big decision one thing is for sure, every unimaginable event has in public eye become quite blasé.   

After going through the plots detailing Napoleonic wars written in old, yellow, dust covered pages from my mother’s diary I realized how awesome it might have been to live through that era, when valor and bravery were considered as an act of honor and when people lived and died by that word. It made me feel that the vanity that we protrude today is puerile in front of those valors of yester years.  History books, literature and ancient text all are all filled with the stories of warriors and kings that went through great lengths of suffering to reach greater heights.     

Courage always reminds me of that famous line from Lord Tennyson’s Lotus eater:

                “COURAGE!” he said, and pointed toward the land,

“This mounting wave will roll us shoreward soon.”

In the afternoon they came unto a land

In which it seemed always afternoon.

This line has several meanings. Of course one implies reaching the paradise where sun never sets. It is a beautiful analogy for prosperity. But reaching that Shangri-La requires courage; courage so big that it can overcome any rising tide that can drift us far from it. 

Cursory glances of my eyes then shifted through all the succeeding republics and settled on lines narrating the establishment of Paris Commune which till this date is idealized by leftist all over the world as perfect manifestation of cradle to grave utopian socialism. The fact further emphasized in Nepali media when in middle of heightened rhetoric our own comrade Badal told the uproarious crowd in Baneshwor that the ultimate goal of Maoist is to establish the Kathmandu commune and on doing so he underscored  an unwavering, unfaltering and unshakeable courage . But alas! All of sudden my animation was broken with shrill cry from surrounding and dogs barking everywhere. And before I could make up anything the ground shook violently and my reflexes immediately understood that it was an earthquake. And eating my pride and swallowing all the courage I ran to the safer grounds. Certainly courage can be romantic in literature but slightest jest of Mother nature can wipe the smugness of so called courageous bunch .  

Critical Analysis on Dr. Baburam Bhattarai's recent lecture on Underdevelopment of Nepal in Tribhuwan University

Had an opportunity to go through the  former Prime Minister Dr. Bhattarai's lecture at Tribhuwan University entitled "THE NATURE OF UNDERDEVELOPMENT & REGIONAL STRUCTURE OF NEPAL: A Marxist Analysis"(http://www.slideshare.net/slideshow/embed_code/37144918#). His exposition on persisting stubborn underdevelopment of Nepal in context of Neo-Marxist theory of movement of surplus value from the periphery towards centre was really succinct and lucid. Being a staunch supporter of Austrian School of Economics  I was rather surprised by his  accurate assessment of poverty in Nepal from Marxist point of view. Especially in his slides he has clearly pointed out that the major economic hurdle Nepal faces is asymmetric trade between India and Nepal since the Sugauli Treaty. The historical reference he has provided regarding the balanced trade Nepal had between both Tibet and India before the Anglo-Nepal war is something every policy maker should heed to. Apparently in both ancient and medieval time Nepal had a vibrant economic trade with both its neighbor. During the time of Sino Chinese war in 18th century Nepal was so powerful that she even decreed Tibet to use our sovereign coins for trade.

 But today's circumstances are completely different. Compared to volume of trade with southern block our trade with northern neighbor is a morsel. Dr. Bhattarai has correctly  pointed to this trade disparity as one of the major obstacle in country's development. He has also pointed out the concentration of workers from all over the countries to major cities such as Kathmandu, Biratnagar and Birgunj as the leading cause of inequitable growth. Besides these two major concerns in his lecture also notes the diminishing marginal return in agricultural sector as another aspect militating against the equitable development. And finally in a very last slide he provides his prescription to break free from vicious spiral of poverty in a trifecta- Federalism, Balance trade  and Inclusive Development. But unfortunately he simply list them out and stop short from providing the proper road map to achieve them.

And this is the point where I think he fails to deliver in his otherwise brilliant lecture. The first issue is of course the most contentious one: Fedralism. He hasn't mentioned on what basis should the lines of federalism be drawn. Further he completely glossed over the political malfeasance  that has so far plagues the entire issue. There is no denying that federalism the only way out from preventing wealth being concentrated only in urban centers, but until the argument of whether using geographical or ethnic basis as criteria for drawing federal map is resolved this issue will remain in limbo. Of course it is really easier said than done. And even after it get solved the other issues such as tariff barriers, state level taxes and equitable sharing of natural resources will undoubtly require extensive exercise before fruits of federalism can be reaped.

As for balancing trade with our neighbor goes this I think will remain a pipe dream until the feeling of enmity between both our neighbors get sorted out. And this of course is beyond our capacity. But that doesn't mean there is nothing we can do. In fact there are few things we can do in our home front. The first thing is trying to make Nepalese currency convertible in India. Second is to make Yuwan fully convertible in Nepal. One other effective option will be instead of fixed peg with Indian Rupees, a new peg should be  establish  with basket of Indian rupees and chinese yuwan, Further currently there is undercurrent brewing in SAARC region to establish single currency governed by same monetary policy. This idea though far-fetched can be very good for Nepal as trying to maintain fixed rate vis a vis India and independent monetary policy , we are witnessing large capital flight as predicted by Impossible Trinity of Mundell-Fleming model. But again the entire premise still hinges on the effective diplomacy. However one encouraging note in this front is establishment of BRICS bank of which both India and China are members. Nepal will need to leverage this new opportunity with skillful shuttle diplomacy in order to bring in capital which unlike the investment from world bank won't be objected by both our neighbor.

Finally the third point Inclusive Development can be achieved only by grass root level movement of increasing local skill and literacy rate. Instead of resorting into populist Affirmative action program, the policy should address towards increasing the core competency level of ethnic minorities. A gramin bank model of financial institution should be established that provides small capital without collateral to women, ethnic minorities, marginalized groups in order to promote small entrepeneurship.

Despite these short comings in his lecture everyone should laud Dr. Bhattarai's trail blazing attempt of sharing his experience with students. Let's hope this prelude will create a knoweledge sharing culture which will be nurtured and in future other policy makers and politicians will also engage in such endeavors.

World Cup and Escapism

After almost a month long festivities, 20th edition of world cup has finally come to an end. And by the early hour of tomorrow a new champion will be crowned thus relegating it to the history books . During this world cup many records were broken both on the pitch and the outside. The match between Brazil and Germany generated most number of tweets. Miroslav Klose became the highest scorer of all time. Neymar broke his back. Some of the underdogs like Costa Rica, Algeria challenged the notion that football is not only the game of elite teams. England  and Portugal kept up its perennial wont of being over hype wind bags by crashing out early.  Meanwhile Portugal cemented their legacy of being chokers. Biggest surprise was of course Spain and total demise of tiki-takka football. On the other hand United State's on again and off again love affair with soccer that seem to rekindle periodically in every four years again surfaced. But this time perhaps alarmed due to high ESPN's rating, right wing commentator Ann Coulter went on vile diatribe against football in general calling it the cultural and moral decadence in American in general. She is entitled to her opinion whatever they may be.  And perhaps most sadly a girl in Nepal killed herself when Brazil lost.

But now as the extravaganza draws close so does this month long escapism or should we rather say a spell of  mass hypnosis. During this period unbeknownst to most so many things happened:  Iraq is falling towards Muslim state with rise of ISIS, Israel and Palestine has gone to war again, Germany has expelled CIA chief , there is  brewing crisis in Ukraine and in our  own home front uncertainty in budget and politics as usual. So question may  arise amidst all these real world problem does the world cup taking center stage is really justifiable? Are we being too narrow minded and selfish that we seem to be oblivion to suffering of our fellow human beings and are too absorbed on absurd notion of who might score a next goal? Doesn't the sport being the major issue has really subjugated us to level of Proles in Orwellian Society?

Well the answer may depend on who you ask.  For me personally answer is no. No, the world cup is not  the distraction and neither is it a escapism. Instead it is the celebration of human virtue. It is the embodiment of all the goodness of mankind, amalgam of human spirit that brings in people of diverse culture irrespective of their cast, creed, ethnicity, sexual orientation, racial background to one common purpose and one common goal. It is a sublime demonstration of brotherhood, helping your team mate, showing courage in front of despair and fight for glory fair and square.

The world has been always divided place. Everything from religion, politics to geographical lines have separated the people and will continue far away in future as well.  But amidst all this the world cup gives a chance, a simple glimmer of hope that in the heart we all are same. We all harbor same hopes and aspiration to be happy and to live life at fullest. And if some moralist accuse us of this as escapism then let it be. Because we all need a short break.

World Cup Mania

World Cup mania is like falling head over heels in love. You lose your sleep and your appetite. You can't think rationally, your head hurts, your work suffer, your professional and personal life suffer. All you can do is ponder upon results , feel ecstatic when your team wins, fall into abyss of despair when they lose. It is a month long whirlwind of romance that brings you joy, pain ,happiness, make you light headed, clear headed ,  make your heart beat go faster and break your heart again and again.

And after month long dizziness she (world cup ) leaves you. She will leave you  behind in the same state of despair as before to the same old boring routine. You feel jilted, dejected and spurned. You feel as if a part of you is gone. And despite the pain and loneliness you can't let go of her. You look forward to meeting her again and again in next four years. You wait for her, you long for her and waiting is all you can do because she is your one true love.

Damn you world cup for ruining everything.

Void

Imagine colors

disappearing from

 a painting

Imagine music

relinquishing

a song

Imagine fragrance

fading from

 a perfume

Imagine humor

escaping from

the joke

Imagine juice

squeezed out

of grapes

Imagine love

forlorn from

the heart

Imagine life

drained out

from body

what's left behind

is nothing

but void.